Europe’s Strategic Dilemmas in a More Hostile World

Former European Commission President José Manuel Durão Barroso said Europe is being forced to rethink its role in the world as it faces an increasingly aggressive Russia and a less predictable United States.

Speaking during a webinar hosted by the Fundação FHC, Barroso argued that the war in Ukraine and the return of President Donald Trump have accelerated Europe’s push for greater strategic autonomy in defense and foreign policy.

“Europeans have finally realized they can no longer behave like teenagers in geopolitics,” Barroso said. “They must be capable of defending themselves.”

Although the European Union’s fragmented decision-making structure remains an obstacle, he said recent crises have pushed member states toward closer cooperation on security and defense.

“Europe is waking up because of Putin and Trump,” he said.

According to Barroso, Trump has fundamentally altered the tone and dynamics of international politics, forcing Europe to reassess its relationship with Washington.

“You may like him or not, but Trump changed the grammar of politics and international relations,” he said. “In the end, that pushes Europe to assert itself more independently on the world stage.”

Barroso, who met Russian President Vladimir Putin dozens of times during his years leading the European Commission, described the Kremlin leader as an autocrat driven less by ideology than by resentment over Russia’s post-Cold War decline.

“He believes Russia was humiliated after the collapse of the Soviet Union,” Barroso said. “Since he cannot confront the United States directly, he threatens Europe instead.”

That, he argued, makes Russia particularly dangerous. “Declining powers with nuclear capabilities may resort to force to reassert themselves.”

Europe’s Push for Faster Defense Cooperation

Barroso defended the use of the European Union’s “enhanced cooperation” mechanism to allow smaller groups of countries to move ahead more quickly on defense integration.

Under the system, established by the Treaty of Lisbon, at least nine member states can deepen cooperation in specific areas without requiring unanimity across the bloc.

“In foreign policy and defense, achieving consensus among 27 countries is extremely difficult,” he said, citing past disagreements over sanctions against Russia following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

“If Europe wants greater defense autonomy, it will need what we call a coalition of the willing,” he said, suggesting that such an arrangement could include not only EU countries but also the United Kingdom, Norway and Ukraine.

Barroso argued that Europe also needs to expand military spending while preserving its welfare systems.

“Europe has one of the world’s strongest social models,” he said. “We want to preserve that, but new geopolitical realities require higher investment in defense and cybersecurity.”

Countries such as Germany, he noted, have more fiscal room to expand defense spending, while others, including France, Italy and Portugal, face tighter budget constraints.

To finance the transition, Barroso proposed the creation of European “defense bonds” — common debt instruments dedicated to military and security investments.

Europe Wakes Up After Decades of Complacency

At the beginning of the discussion, Barroso summarized his perspective succinctly: “I speak as a Portuguese, a European, an Atlanticist and a globalist.”

He argued that Europe spent decades under the protection of the American security umbrella, allowing many countries to prioritize social spending while keeping defense budgets relatively low.

“For years, U.S. presidents asked Europe to spend more on defense,” he said. “Most European countries preferred to invest in their welfare systems.”

That dynamic, he said, has now changed dramatically.

“The invasion of Ukraine marked a turning point,” Barroso said. “For the first time in decades, Europe faces a major war on its own continent.”

Countries such as Poland and the Baltic states now see the Russian threat as existential, he added, while historically neutral nations like Finland and Sweden have moved closer to NATO.

Germany, meanwhile, has undergone what Barroso described as a historic transformation.

“Germany changed its Constitution to allow greater military spending,” he said. “That would have been unimaginable a few years ago.”

According to Barroso, Germany is likely to become Europe’s leading conventional military power by the end of the decade — a major shift in the country’s postwar posture.

Even so, he acknowledged the European Union’s institutional limits.

“We are not the United States of Europe,” he said. “We are 27 countries with different histories, interests and political cultures.”

Still, Barroso argued that Europe has repeatedly shown an ability to adapt during moments of crisis.

“Europe is more reactive than proactive,” he said. “But when it finally decides, things happen.”

The New Geopolitical Context and the EU-Mercosur Agreement

Barroso said the global balance of power is being reshaped by China’s rise, Russia’s assertiveness and America’s changing international posture.

In that context, he argued, the European Union has sought to strengthen strategic partnerships abroad, including through the EU-Mercosur trade agreement finalized earlier this year after more than two decades of negotiations.

“Part of the reason the agreement moved forward now was Trump,” he said. “As protectionism rises, Europe needs to diversify its partnerships.”

He also addressed Europe’s relationship with China, warning that the continent must recognize the risks of excessive dependence while avoiding a complete rupture with Beijing.

“China is essential to the global economy,” he said. “We are not in favor of decoupling.”

Instead, Barroso defended a strategy that combines dialogue, economic cooperation and firmness on democratic values.

“We must be clear about what we agree with and what we do not,” he said. “That requires diplomacy.”

Brazil’s Place in a Fragmented World

Discussing relations with Brazil, Barroso argued that the country should seek a more central role in global affairs.

“Brazil should not see itself only as a leader of the Global South,” he said. “It is a major democracy, a major economy and an open society. It should occupy a more prominent place in the international system.”

He emphasized what he described as the shared democratic values linking Brazil and Europe.

Concluding the event, former Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Lafer, president of the Fundação FHC, echoed that point.

Quoting former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Lafer said Brazil and South America represent “another West,” sharing with Europe not only economic interests but also broader democratic and cultural values.

“With all our flaws,” Barroso concluded, “Europe remains a space of freedom, human rights and relative social justice. A stronger Europe matters not only for Europeans, but for a more balanced and democratic world.”

Otávio Dias is a content editor at the Fundação FHC. A journalist specializing in politics and international affairs, he was a London correspondent for Folha de S.Paulo and editor of the website of Estadão.