The American and Chinese economies are so intertwined that a ‘new cold war’ is unlikely to occur. “The United States maintains economic relations with China as they never had before with the Soviet Union. This level of economic intertwining is the opposite of what characterized the relationship between the two great world powers between 1945 (end of World War II) and 1991 (dissolution of the USSR),” said the American political scientist, Joseph Nye, in this webinar with comments from former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso and Sergio Amaral, former Brazilian Ambassador to the United States.
Mr. Nye dismissed the idea that one of the possible consequences of the novel coronavirus pandemic would be the end of globalization. “What could happen is that the pandemic could reinforce the ‘bad type of globalization’ at the expense of the ‘good type of globalization’,” said Nye, co-creator, along with his colleague Robert Keohane, of the theory of interdependence and complex interdependence in international relations, introduced by them both in the already-classic book, Power and Interdependence: World Politics in Transition (Little, Brown, 1977).
“Instead of thinking in the short-term and what they consider to be their own immediate interest, the main countries should adopt a broader outlook that includes the interests of the others,” said the speaker, a concept defended in his most recent book, Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump (Oxford University Press, 2020).
According to the Harvard professor, it is a false impression that authoritarian countries – capable of imposing strict confinement on their populations – have done better in facing COVID-19. He highlighted Germany, South Korea, and New Zealand as positive examples in the democratic world, who managed to control the pandemic at its most critical moment transparently and collaborate between government and society.
In the speaker’s view, both the US, under the leadership of Donald Trump, and China have failed. “Beijing and Washington denied the seriousness of the pandemic early on, responded late, and they now blame each other,” he said.
One of the authors of the ‘soft power’ concept, Nye pointed out that the primary point of conflict between the USA and China today is who will control the technology critical for exercising political and economic power in the foreseeable future. This dispute is manifested in Washington’s attempt to block the Chinese company Huawei’s advance in offering 5G technology worldwide.
‘Brazil should not choose a side’
In his comments, former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso said that Brazil should avoid automatically aligning itself with Washington or Beijing, “One of the advantages of being outside the center of the dispute is that we don’t have to choose either side. This is the time for forbearance, observation, and cautious action.”
Sergio Amaral, Brazil’s Ambassador to the United States between 2016 and 2019, recalled that Brazil is more aligned with the US in moral and cultural terms, but said that China is an economic reality that cannot be overlooked. “The competition between China and the USA is active throughout Latin America, including Brazil. Will it leave us room for autonomy? We must fight for it, but it is not easy,” said Amaral, member of the Board of the FHC Foundation and CEBRI, co-organizer of the event.
“Brazil does not have to choose between Washington and Beijing because it is not in its best interest. However, due to the long history of shared fundamental values and economic interests between Brazil and the USA, Brazil can work with the American government to solidify the idea that international cooperation is the best way forward,” concluded Nye.
“Brazil has always been able to build bridges. We cannot give that up,” said Fernando Henrique Cardoso.
Lack of world leaders
Fernando Henrique Cardoso and Nye lamented the lack of world leaders with the capacity and energy to exercise global leadership at a time of so much change. There is a lack of vision for the future and thinking big.
“Germany occupied France during World War II, but Paris was not vindictive after the end of the conflict. On the contrary. Under the inspiration of Jean Monnet (French government consultant at the time), France and Germany created the European Coal and Steel Community, the embryo of the current European Union. Today, the notion of a war between France and Germany is unimaginable. Leadership has transformed the relations between those two great countries,” said Nye.
Fernando Henrique Cardoso agreed, “Trump and Xi Jinping are not transformative leaders. Faced with the global threat of the coronavirus, they could have cooperated, for example, to create a global fund to develop vaccines against COVID-19, in which the poorest countries would not be left out. An attitude like that changes the global geopolitical game.”
US Elections
Nye believes there is a consensus in Washington that it is necessary to contain China in matters related to world trade, due to the substantial state subsidies to Chinese companies and to intellectual property, as China is believed to violate the rules related to both.
“Republicans and Democrats agree that these Chinese practices must be contained. If Joe Biden wins the US presidential election in November, that restraint will be achieved by fortifying old US alliances. If Trump is re-elected, the confrontation between China and the United States should intensify, detrimental to both multilateralism and the possibility for cooperation,” said the political scientist. Democrats must also demand that Beijing have a higher level of respect for human rights, as in the case of the crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong.
“Like the USA, Brazil cannot give up its moral commitments to defend human rights, democracy, and freedom,” said Cardoso.
Beatriz Kipnis has a Bachelor’s and a Master’s degree in Public Administration and Government (FGV-SP) and is an assistant coordinator of studies and debates at the Fernando Henrique Cardoso Foundation.
Portuguese to English translation by Melissa Harkin & Todd Harkin (Harkin Translations)