{"id":27419,"date":"2026-04-29T15:21:17","date_gmt":"2026-04-29T18:21:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fundacaofhc.org.br\/?post_type=debate&#038;p=27419"},"modified":"2026-05-15T16:05:32","modified_gmt":"2026-05-15T19:05:32","slug":"europes-strategic-dilemmas-in-a-more-hostile-world","status":"publish","type":"debate","link":"https:\/\/fundacaofhc.org.br\/en\/debate\/europes-strategic-dilemmas-in-a-more-hostile-world\/","title":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s Strategic Dilemmas in a More Hostile World"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Former European Commission President Jos\u00e9 Manuel Dur\u00e3o Barroso said Europe is being forced to rethink its role in the world as it faces an increasingly aggressive Russia and a less predictable United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Speaking during a webinar hosted by the Funda\u00e7\u00e3o FHC, Barroso argued that the war in Ukraine and the return of President Donald Trump have accelerated Europe\u2019s push for greater strategic autonomy in defense and foreign policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cEuropeans have finally realized they can no longer behave like teenagers in geopolitics,\u201d Barroso said. \u201cThey must be capable of defending themselves.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although the European Union\u2019s fragmented decision-making structure remains an obstacle, he said recent crises have pushed member states toward closer cooperation on security and defense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cEurope is waking up because of Putin and Trump,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to Barroso, Trump has fundamentally altered the tone and dynamics of international politics, forcing Europe to reassess its relationship with Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cYou may like him or not, but Trump changed the grammar of politics and international relations,\u201d he said. \u201cIn the end, that pushes Europe to assert itself more independently on the world stage.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Barroso, who met Russian President Vladimir Putin dozens of times during his years leading the European Commission, described the Kremlin leader as an autocrat driven less by ideology than by resentment over Russia\u2019s post-Cold War decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cHe believes Russia was humiliated after the collapse of the Soviet Union,\u201d Barroso said. \u201cSince he cannot confront the United States directly, he threatens Europe instead.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That, he argued, makes Russia particularly dangerous. \u201cDeclining powers with nuclear capabilities may resort to force to reassert themselves.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"embed-responsive-item\"  title=\"Os dilemas estrat\u00e9gicos da Uni\u00e3o Europeia \u2014 com Jos\u00e9 Manuel Dur\u00e3o Barroso\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/0832yEu6tYk?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Europe\u2019s Push for Faster Defense Cooperation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Barroso defended the use of the European Union\u2019s \u201cenhanced cooperation\u201d mechanism to allow smaller groups of countries to move ahead more quickly on defense integration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Under the system, established by the Treaty of Lisbon, at least nine member states can deepen cooperation in specific areas without requiring unanimity across the bloc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIn foreign policy and defense, achieving consensus among 27 countries is extremely difficult,\u201d he said, citing past disagreements over sanctions against Russia following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIf Europe wants greater defense autonomy, it will need what we call a coalition of the willing,\u201d he said, suggesting that such an arrangement could include not only EU countries but also the United Kingdom, Norway and Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Barroso argued that Europe also needs to expand military spending while preserving its welfare systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cEurope has one of the world\u2019s strongest social models,\u201d he said. \u201cWe want to preserve that, but new geopolitical realities require higher investment in defense and cybersecurity.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Countries such as Germany, he noted, have more fiscal room to expand defense spending, while others, including France, Italy and Portugal, face tighter budget constraints.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To finance the transition, Barroso proposed the creation of European \u201cdefense bonds\u201d \u2014 common debt instruments dedicated to military and security investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Europe Wakes Up After Decades of Complacency<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the beginning of the discussion, Barroso summarized his perspective succinctly: \u201cI speak as a Portuguese, a European, an Atlanticist and a globalist.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He argued that Europe spent decades under the protection of the American security umbrella, allowing many countries to prioritize social spending while keeping defense budgets relatively low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cFor years, U.S. presidents asked Europe to spend more on defense,\u201d he said. \u201cMost European countries preferred to invest in their welfare systems.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That dynamic, he said, has now changed dramatically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe invasion of Ukraine marked a turning point,\u201d Barroso said. \u201cFor the first time in decades, Europe faces a major war on its own continent.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Countries such as Poland and the Baltic states now see the Russian threat as existential, he added, while historically neutral nations like Finland and Sweden have moved closer to NATO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Germany, meanwhile, has undergone what Barroso described as a historic transformation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cGermany changed its Constitution to allow greater military spending,\u201d he said. \u201cThat would have been unimaginable a few years ago.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to Barroso, Germany is likely to become Europe\u2019s leading conventional military power by the end of the decade \u2014 a major shift in the country\u2019s postwar posture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even so, he acknowledged the European Union\u2019s institutional limits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWe are not the United States of Europe,\u201d he said. \u201cWe are 27 countries with different histories, interests and political cultures.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Still, Barroso argued that Europe has repeatedly shown an ability to adapt during moments of crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cEurope is more reactive than proactive,\u201d he said. \u201cBut when it finally decides, things happen.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The New Geopolitical Context and the EU-Mercosur Agreement<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Barroso said the global balance of power is being reshaped by China\u2019s rise, Russia\u2019s assertiveness and America\u2019s changing international posture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In that context, he argued, the European Union has sought to strengthen strategic partnerships abroad, including through the EU-Mercosur trade agreement finalized earlier this year after more than two decades of negotiations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cPart of the reason the agreement moved forward now was Trump,\u201d he said. \u201cAs protectionism rises, Europe needs to diversify its partnerships.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He also addressed Europe\u2019s relationship with China, warning that the continent must recognize the risks of excessive dependence while avoiding a complete rupture with Beijing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cChina is essential to the global economy,\u201d he said. \u201cWe are not in favor of decoupling.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Instead, Barroso defended a strategy that combines dialogue, economic cooperation and firmness on democratic values.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWe must be clear about what we agree with and what we do not,\u201d he said. \u201cThat requires diplomacy.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Brazil\u2019s Place in a Fragmented World<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Discussing relations with Brazil, Barroso argued that the country should seek a more central role in global affairs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cBrazil should not see itself only as a leader of the Global South,\u201d he said. \u201cIt is a major democracy, a major economy and an open society. It should occupy a more prominent place in the international system.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He emphasized what he described as the shared democratic values linking Brazil and Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Concluding the event, former Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Lafer, president of the Funda\u00e7\u00e3o FHC, echoed that point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Quoting former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Lafer said Brazil and South America represent \u201canother West,\u201d sharing with Europe not only economic interests but also broader democratic and cultural values.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWith all our flaws,\u201d Barroso concluded, \u201cEurope remains a space of freedom, human rights and relative social justice. A stronger Europe matters not only for Europeans, but for a more balanced and democratic world.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Ot\u00e1vio Dias is a content editor at the Funda\u00e7\u00e3o FHC. A journalist specializing in politics and international affairs, he was a London correspondent for Folha de S.Paulo and editor of the website of Estad\u00e3o.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In this webinar, Jos\u00e9 Manuel Dur\u00e3o Barroso analyzed the current challenges facing the bloc in the international arena.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":27196,"template":"","tags":[519,530,534,610],"plataforma-democratica":[],"tema":[468,471],"tipo-debate":[],"class_list":["post-27419","debate","type-debate","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-democracy-2","tag-europe-en","tag-european-union-en","tag-geopolitics-2","tema-crisis-and-renewal-of-democracy","tema-new-global-geopolitics"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Europe\u2019s Strategic Dilemmas in a More Hostile World | Funda\u00e7\u00e3o FHC<\/title>\n<meta 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